Town Hall Recap

Trombly Headcount Survey Overview

• Purpose: Understand family preferences in the former Trombly Elementary catchment and evaluate demand for local public education.

• Conducted by: EPIC MRA (March 2025), via mailed postcards to ~1,600 addresses.

• Target: Households with at least one child under age 10.

• Response Rate: 438 responses total; 227 with children under 10. Estimated 71% response rate of relevant households—exceptionally high for mailer surveys.

Key Findings

1. Survey Suggests Population Growth Confirmed

• Survey counted 250 children aged 0–5, exceeding Plante Moran’s estimate of 243 within its sample.

• Suggests Plante Moran’s projection is correct, this area is growing faster than expected, and is a strategic opportunity for GPPSS.

2. Survey Suggests Capture Rate Challenges

• 25% of respondents said they opt out of GPPSS due to perceived overcrowding/class-size concerns at Defer Elementary, not preference for private schools. Also, the most-cited reason to be unsure or not planning on sending children 0-4 to Defer was perceived overcrowding/class-size concerns.

• 70% of families not currently enrolled in GPPSS said they’d enroll if Trombly reopened as a PreK–4 school.

• As reported by Plante Moran in February 2024 in its Enrollment Report, district-wide capture rate had dropped 10 points in 2022 versus a decade earlier representing a loss of approximately 851 students and $9.6M per year. Most of this loss was to “Public Non-GPPSS” options like homeschool, virtual, other public districts, or public charter schools. This suggests that, beyond birthrate decline, investigating and repairing capture rate is an important task for the school board and administration.

3. Strong Preschool Demand

• 86% of families with children aged 0–4 said they would use GPPSS preschool if offered at Trombly.

• Only 7% currently attend GPPSS’s Barnes preschool—limited capacity is the likely barrier.

• Preschool is a powerful early entry point into the district.

Budget Neutrality

Analysis was performed regarding a scenario where Defer and Trombly add 4 year-old preschool alongside Y5/K-4 offerings.

• Reopening Trombly was estimated by GPPSS to require 174 new students to offset operating costs and achieve budget neutrality.

• Survey-based projection shows 236 potential new students, exceeding that goal.

• Even after an additional 25% reduction on an already conservative estimate, the projected 177 students still exceeds the target.

Implications

• A PreK–4 model at Trombly and Defer could:

  • Expand preschool access, meeting demand for GPPSS preschool.

  • Alleviate Defer overcrowding.

  • Attract new students and retain more within-district families.

• Model aligns with state trends and mirrors successful district approaches (e.g., Birmingham Public Schools preschool+elementary model with mixed state-funded and tuition-based offerings).

Conclusion

We have shown that the data suggests Plante Moran’s predictions of the Trombly catchment as fast-growing for 0-5 year-olds is correct and potentially more of an opportunity than predicted.

We have shown that a partnership between a city and a school district can be incredibly fruitful. In this instance, it led to an estimated 71% sample of the Trombly catchment area allowing for more confident assertions and analysis. The compounding effects of capture rate and the impending educational decisions for families with children aged 0-5 suggest that it is beneficial to analyze areas with preschool-aged children with relative urgency. Given Plante Moran’s heatmap, the next-fastest growing area of children aged 0-5 is Harper Woods which may have similar or different capture rate concerns.

We have shown there is a very high opinion of Grosse Pointe Public Schools preschool offerings. If, as assumed, this sentiment is shared throughout the district, the PreK-4 model used in this analysis could be considered in every neighborhood district-wide; likely increasing building utilization, potentially increasing capture rate, and likely improving future academic performance for children enrolled.

This analysis does not disagree with the experts. However, it is analyzing the survey results with different questions in mind, specifically regarding how to increase capture rate in Grosse Pointe Park and how to meet the preschool demand in the area. We welcome Plante Moran’s analysis of PreK-4 throughout the entire district and how Trombly and Defer play into that vision in a budget neutral manner. A conservative analysis of all available data suggests that a budget neutral model exists and that this opportunity is well worth looking into further.

Data analysis was performed and prepared by Matt Kahl (future Barnes/Defer/Trombly dad), Brent Dreaver (future Defer dad), and Luke Donahue of JD Power (current Barnes dad).